Two examples often given of black swans are the outbreak of the WWI and the terrorist bombings of 9/11. The problem with these, as with several other similar examples, is that these events were largely foreseen by many people, but these people were either ignored or marginalized, often for political reasons. I have been assured by several historians that there were quite a few diplomats and experts on foreign policy who recognized the likelihood of a calamitous major war caused by the instability of certain areas of Europe and the system of alliances in the early 20th century. These experts were largely ignored and their analyses excluded from history books.
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It is simply a fact that most people don’t pay attention, don’t read much in the way of news and are uncritical of what they do read, and know little science. Thus, it is no surprise that they are constantly surprised by things. However, there are still lots of folks who do pay attention and have tremendous expertise. Since many of them know and say and write things which are uncomfortable to those with political power, their opinions are often disregarded and marginalized. Many so-called black swans are simply the result of the rewriting of history, or poor memory, or both.
http://nuweb2.neu.edu/math/cp/blog/?id=269&month=04&year=2008&date=2008-04-08
Wer die Serie Numb3rs auch (oder vorwiegend!) wegen der mathematischen Methoden anschaut, die dort im Plot eingebaut wurden, dem ist u.a. dieser Blog hier zu empfehlen, aus dem auch obiges Zitat stammt, das wohl zeitlos Gültigkeit besitzt …
Numb3rs
This is a blog where a professor from Northeastern University’s Math department posts mathematical comments on the television show “Numb3rs”.
http://nuweb2.neu.edu/math/cp/blog/
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